Srinagar, Oct 11: Jammu and Kashmir would need an estimated Rs 1,43,849 crore investment over five years to promote sustainable economic growth, regenerate natural resources, and strengthen social development, according to a report by the Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies (RGICS).
The report, titled Hara Bhara Swaraj: A New Vision for J&K and a New Strategy for Realising that Vision, estimates that the proposed investment programme could generate approximately 9.27 lakh jobs and add Rs 34,206 crore to the Union Territory’s annual Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) by the end of the fifth year, over and above normal growth.
The study proposes an annual investment of approximately Rs 28,770 crore, equivalent to around 11 percent of J&K’s 2025-26 GSDP of Rs 2.65 lakh crore and about 27 percent of the government’s expenditure budget for the year.
The report cautions that the proposed investment cannot be financed through government spending alone, recommending a combination of public funding, private investment, institutional credit, community contributions and climate finance.
RGICS, based in New Delhi and established under the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation, undertakes policy research on socio-economic development, governance and public policy. Its report on J&K forms part of the institute’s NEW LENS series of studies examining development challenges in Indian Himalayan regions.
Enterprises account for 66% of proposed investment
The report divides the proposed investment into three pillars: nature regeneration, enabling social development and wealth creation through enterprises.
The largest allocation of Rs 94,764 crore, accounting for 65.9 percent of the total, is proposed for agricultural and non-farm enterprises. This includes Rs 20,970 crore for agricultural enterprises and Rs 73,794 crore for non-farm manufacturing and service enterprises.
The strategy seeks to strengthen small farms, micro-businesses and other enterprises through improved access to credit, equipment, infrastructure, skills and markets. It also proposes helping businesses move beyond subsistence-level operations towards more productive and commercially viable models.
The report identifies the scale of the informal business sector as a major reason for focusing on enterprise development. Citing the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises 2023, it records 8,99,874 unincorporated enterprises in J&K, including 7,87,032 own-account enterprises operating without hired workers.
The study proposes upgrading locally oriented micro-enterprises while helping larger small and medium-sized businesses access wider domestic and export markets.
Rs 29,953 crore proposed for social development.
The second pillar, enabling social development, carries a proposed investment of Rs 29,953 crore, or 20.8 percent of the total.
This includes Rs 13,733 crore for strengthening health and education, Rs 15,396 crore for social development and Rs 824 crore for institutional capacity and accountability.
The report calls for improvements in public services, learning outcomes, healthcare, community participation and local governance. It also emphasises strengthening institutions such as Gram Panchayats, Block Development Councils, District Development Councils and Urban Local Bodies.
The authors argue that economic growth must be accompanied by improvements in human capabilities and social infrastructure if its benefits are to reach a wider section of the population.
Rs 19,131 crore for nature regeneration
The remaining Rs 19,131 crore, representing 13.3 percent of the proposed investment, is earmarked for nature regeneration.
Of this, Rs 4,046 crore is proposed for water commons, Rs 12,899 crore for forest commons and Rs 2,186 crore for common and private land.
The proposed interventions include restoration of damaged water bodies and springs, catchment treatment, forest regeneration, soil conservation, sustainable farming practices and climate-resilient infrastructure.
The report argues that environmental protection cannot be treated as separate from economic development in a region whose livelihoods depend heavily on agriculture, horticulture, water resources and fragile Himalayan ecosystems.
Explaining the rationale behind the strategy, the report states: “The deliberate sequencing of these allocations reflects the argument of the report. Unless the first two sets of investment are made, in nature and in people, investment in enterprises will not succeed at scale, and to the extent that it does succeed it will serve only the top few percent of the population.”
Government contribution estimated at Rs 32,940 crore
The financing framework proposes that the Jammu and Kashmir and Central governments together contribute 22.9 percent of the total investment, amounting to approximately Rs 32,940 crore over five years, or Rs 6,588 crore annually.
Bank and financial institution loans to private entities are projected to account for 40.2 percent of the total, while community and household contributions are expected to provide 22.4 percent.
The remaining sources include climate finance at 8.3 percent, philanthropy and corporate social responsibility at 3.5 percent, and individual giving and volunteering at 2.7 percent.
The report envisages different funding arrangements for different sectors. Government financing would play a larger role in nature regeneration and social development, while enterprise upgrading would rely more heavily on bank credit and private contributions.
The proposed financing model is intended to mobilise resources beyond the public budget, although the report’s estimates do not represent confirmed funding commitments.
Report projects 9.27 lakh jobs
The investment programme is projected to generate 9,27,477 additional jobs, expressed in the report as person-years of employment on an ongoing basis after five years. The estimated annual earnings vary across sectors, from Rs 1.54 lakh per worker in nature regeneration to Rs 6.89 lakh in enterprise upgrading.
The report also projects that the programme could generate Rs 4,273 crore annually through carbon sequestration and emission-reduction credits from the sixth year onwards, if credits are aggregated and sold through the proposed AMSER mechanism. This would depend on the applicable international climate framework and India’s carbon-credit regulations.
The authors describe the proposed approach as the NEW Strategy, centred on Nature regeneration, Enabling human, social and institutional development, and Well-th creation through entrepreneurship.
The report acknowledges that its financial estimates are based on collated unit costs from existing government programmes and published estimates, rather than independent, ground-up costing exercises. It says they should be treated as broad estimates for public discussion, not implementation-ready budgets.
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